The Argentine Agroindustrial Council (CAA) warned that Argentina is facing “the certain possibility of facing one of the worst droughts in decades”. Likewise, he demanded that Congress approve a Farm Insurance Law to cushion the impact of the weather in the 2022/23 campaign.
The CAA expressed its “enormous concern about the economic and social consequences that this phenomenon could generate in our country and in the operation of agricultural, agro-industrial value chains and mainly regional economies.”
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From the core, which is made up of 61 entities, They recalled that the country’s cereal and trade bags crudely reflect the effects that the drought is having on the development of winter crops and the sowing prospects for summer crops (soybeans, sunflowers and corn) and the rest of agricultural production.
“For example, in relation to wheatwater limitations forced cuts in more than 500 thousand hectares in the estimated areabeing the NOA and the center-north of Córdoba and Santa Fe the most affected regions”, they highlighted.
Likewise, they pointed out that in the provinces of Córdoba, La Pampa, San Luis, Santiago del Estero, Tucumán and the southeast of Catamarca, the smallest area was sown in at least the last 5 campaigns and it is expected that the area to be harvested will be smaller. , even due to the generalized context of hydric stress, to which frosts are added.
Regarding the development of the crop, they specified that the absence of precipitation throughout the winter, together with the recorded frosts, they limited growth and caused damage.
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“The core region shows crops in 85% in drought, 10% in scarcity and 5% in regular state regarding the maps of water reserves in the soil. The first estimated wheat yields barely reach 50% of what is expected in much of the region,” they warned.
On the north of the agricultural area, losses in yield potentials and even harvestable area are expected. “On a national scale, 50% of the wheat area reports a water condition between regular and droughtwith almost 60% of said area concentrated on the NOA, NEA, where the crop is in full spike, and the core region, where it is beginning its critical period”.
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“On the other hand, reports say that the thick campaign It started with the scene increased drought of the last 27 years, as a consequence of going through the driest winter since 1995 and the dragging effect of the lack of rain in autumn and summer. If materialized, it would be the third consecutive year with an event of La Niña characteristics”, indicated the CAA based on data that the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) spread days ago about the panorama in the core zone.
In the case of sunflower57% of the hectares already implanted are in the first vegetative stages with a water condition between regular and drought, compromising their potential yield.
While for corn an interannual decrease is estimated in the hectares sown as a result of the scarce water reserves available in the center-east of the country.
“Along with the decrease in the area, a change in the early-late ratio in favor of the latter, which would impact the final volume of production”, they pointed out.
Concern about regional economies
The CAA also warned that the situation of regional economies “is highly uncertain.”
“One of the most affected areas continues to be in the NEA provinces, where yerba mate, citrus and forestry productions are still recovering from the fires and the extreme drought that made the news at the beginning of the year,” they described.
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Regarding this, the Agroindustrial Council added that, in the center of the country, the vegetable productionflowering for honey production, and the availability of pasture for some dairy basins has been a critical point.
“In the mountainous zone, the availability of water for irrigation also remains scarce, which is why potential productive yields are of concern, as well as the rising energy costs that requires its management. The effects of these events will not only be observed this year, but also in the years to come”, they emphasized.
The entities demanded “a comprehensive policy”
“Once again, scenarios like the current one, of greater frequency and intensity as the years go by, highlight the importance of need to develop a comprehensive policy for managing the risks faced by these productions, with a Farm Insurance Law and the update of the Agricultural Emergency Law among its priorities”, highlighted the statement.
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Faced with this panorama, from the agro-industrial chain they described “serious consequences” that can have the presence of a third consecutive “Girl” on the grain harvest, the production of meat, milk and regional economies.
“If there are no rains in the short term, the losses in production will seriously affect the agro-industrial companies and will be reflected in lower exports and foreign exchange earnings, contribution to tax collection, fall in employment in the different regions of the country, and lower economic growth”, concluded the CAA.